India’s foreign policy is facing a moment of truth. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is preparing to engage with Chinese President Xi Jinping in what many describe as a cautious thaw after years of hostility. At the same time, relations with the US have cooled under Donald Trump’s rebukes, while Russia remains a critical but complicated energy partner. With competing global powers pulling Delhi in different directions, the question looms: will Modi’s China outreach help India or expose its vulnerabilities?
“Indi Chinee Bhai Bhai” Revisited
The phrase “Indi Chinee Bhai Bhai” – once symbolic of friendship in the 1950s – collapsed into bitter conflict after the 1962 border war. Today, it returns in the form of pragmatic diplomacy. Despite deadly clashes in Galwan in 2020 and deep mistrust, Modi is set to meet Xi, signaling an attempt to stabilize ties.
China’s recent tone has been unexpectedly conciliatory. Beijing’s envoy in Delhi accused Washington of bullying India with tariffs, while Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged both neighbors to see each other as partners rather than adversaries. For India, however, the stakes are more about managing an unavoidable rival than rekindling brotherhood.
US Strains and Trump’s Rebuke
India’s alignment with Washington has long been seen as central to countering China’s rise. Yet Donald Trump’s repeated rebukes over Russian oil imports and his tariff hikes have strained the partnership.
Delhi finds Trump’s criticism puzzling, especially since China buys far more Russian crude than India. Adding to the tension, trade talks have stalled and Trump’s claims of mediating with Pakistan have unsettled Indian policymakers.
Despite these frictions, the long-term logic of US–India cooperation remains intact. Both countries share interests in technology, defense, and Indo-Pacific security, making complete rupture unlikely.
Russia’s Energy Lifeline
India’s growing dependence on discounted Russian crude oil reflects its pressing energy needs. Foreign Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Moscow reinforced the message that India will not bow to Western sanctions.
For Delhi, Moscow is both an energy supplier and a symbolic partner that underscores India’s autonomy in foreign policy. But the challenge is Russia’s deepening dependence on China, which risks diluting its value as an independent partner for India.
China as Strategic Preoccupation
India’s $99 billion trade deficit with China highlights the imbalance in their relationship. Critics question whether engaging Beijing is a tactical necessity or a strategic gamble.
Analysts like Happymon Jacob argue that managing China will be India’s “core preoccupation” for decades. Even a working relationship could buy Delhi time to strengthen its economic and military foundations. But skeptics warn that Beijing may use talks to weaken India’s alignment with Washington without offering real concessions.
India’s Limited Capacity
India’s global ambitions still face structural limits. Its $4 trillion economy is dwarfed by China’s $18 trillion and America’s $30 trillion. Despite self-reliance campaigns, India remains the world’s second-largest importer of arms, with limited domestic defense production.
These constraints explain India’s strategy of hedging rather than aligning fully with one camp. Strategic ambiguity may be a necessity, not a choice.
Competing Visions for the Future
Policy circles are split on the way forward.
- Ashley Tellis of Carnegie Endowment believes India must align more closely with Washington, arguing that only the US has the power to contain China.
- Nirupama Rao, former Indian ambassador, counters that India’s tradition of autonomy demands flexibility. She describes India as a “titan in chrysalis” that should not bind itself to a single camp.
Both perspectives highlight the tension between India’s desire for independence and the pressures of great power politics.
Strategic Patience as Policy
Indian diplomats often speak of “strategic patience.” The approach is to absorb pressure from all sides while preserving long-term options. Past experience supports this logic: even after nuclear sanctions in the 1970s and 1990s, India and the US rebuilt ties when strategic needs demanded.
Today, the same may apply. India will keep buying Russian oil, maintain dialogue with China, and endure US criticism while betting that global shifts will eventually bring opportunities back to the table.